How are you? We hope well, because the mood among French people this back-to-school season is optimistic.
Indeed, a sign of a “Paris Olympics effect,” and despite strong political uncertainties, nearly four out of ten French people (39%) indicate they are optimistic, according to IFOP. This is a remarkable improvement compared to the last measurement in June 2024 (+22 points), conducted just days before the first round of the anticipated legislative elections.
True enough, economic activity has been slowing for several months due to the “dissolution effect,” and the recruitment market is impacted by this period of uncertainty. Do companies need better visibility on the country’s future economic direction before committing to new hires? So be it, let’s base ourselves on the latest forecasts published last week, according to which the central bank sees the French economy holding strong, anticipating an unemployment rate of 7.5% by year-end.
As it had hinted, the Banque de France revised upward its growth forecasts for the French economy in 2024. According to its latest projections presented, it now expects, like INSEE, a GDP increase of 1.1% this year, instead of 0.8% previously. Admittedly, the end of the year would be lackluster: growth would be flat in the fourth quarter, after surging 0.4% between July and September thanks to spillovers from the Paris 2024 Games. The Banque de France, however, left its 2025 growth forecast unchanged at 1.2%, a figure slightly higher than that put forward in a recent note by the Treasury Department (+1%).
2025 would start with very weak carryover growth, “close to 0.2%”. But according to its experts, economic activity would accelerate at a quarterly rate of around 0.3% to 0.4% next year, versus 0.2% on average this year. In 2026, GDP would grow by 1.5%.
So now is the time to act.
Technological advances and ecological transition challenges continue at a rapid pace; in 2025, data, ESG, and AI especially will lead companies to continue their pivot, out of necessity.
So now is the time to act (again). Anticipate in this last quarter, the first of next year. Think ahead and maintain your edge. And remain, whatever the turbulence in our environment, true to your vision, by always taking a step back.